For the past two decades youth markets were justifiably the focus of attention for many products and services. This segment was growing rapidly in both the number of persons and spending power in virtually all regions of the world. However the time has come for companies to perhaps reconsider their marketing focus. As a result of declining birth rates, exacerbated by a declining number of women of childbearing age, the number of young people in the world is no longer a growth segment. As shown in the table below, for China, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Affluent Asia, South America, and South Africa the absolute number of young people will decline over the next 20 years. In many cases the rate of decline is in excess of 1% per annum. In the case of China, over the next 20 years the total number of people under the age of 25 is projected to decline by 138 million people.
In the case of North Africa and the Middle East, Developing Asia and India; while the younger age groups are still growing in number the growth rates are very low, reflecting declining birth rates. In the case of North America the growth of younger age groups is also a function of immigration policies. Many young families move to North America and this helps maintain the size of the younger age groups.
So in terms of products and services aimed at persons under the age of 25 brands have to grow market share in the affluent markets given that the number of customers is in decline or focus on the markets where the young segment is growing in size but typically not very affluent. This is a significant change in market scenarios for these products and services.
Obviously the growth age groups are persons over the age of 40 and particularly those over the age of 65. In every region of the world this segment is growing rapidly and typically at over 2% per annum. This means that the 65+ age group is changing in market importance. For example in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Affluent Asia they currently represent 16% of the population. By 2029 they are expected to be 23% of the population and hence an important market segment. In the more affluent parts of the world these people do have that savings and do spend significantly in the more discretionary categories. So they could be ‘the new youth’ (market).
